Signal 1: Device Activity Divergence — Feb 2026
Report date: 2026-03-11
Analysis period: Feb 2026 (avg daily devices)
Baseline period: Aug 2025–Jan 2026 (6-month avg daily
devices)
Alert threshold: Divergence ≥ 20pp (device trend minus
subscriber trend)
Scope: Accounts with ≥ 50 avg daily devices in 6-month
baseline AND ≥ USD 1,000 revenue in Feb 2026
Signal Guide
Divergence (pp) = Device count % change − Subscriber count % change
A negative divergence means devices communicating on the network are falling faster than billed subscriptions — the account is paying for SIMs that are no longer active on the network. This is sometimes called phantom billing and is an early indicator of churn risk.
| Severity | Divergence | Meaning | Recommended Action |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🔴 Severe | ≥ 60pp gap | Large structural divergence between traffic and billing | Escalate to account team immediately |
| 🟠 Notable | 20–59pp gap | Meaningful divergence — monitor and investigate | Account team to investigate cause |
Executive Summary
🚨 10 of 144 qualifying accounts flagged with a ≥ 20pp divergence between traffic devices and billed subscribers in Feb 2026. 🔴 3 Severe (≥ 60pp divergence) — requires immediate account team review.
Flagged Accounts — Feb 2026
| Sev | Account | Revenue (Feb 2026) | Devices* Baseline avg | Devices* Feb 2026 | Device Chg | Subs† Baseline avg | Subs† Feb 2026 | Subs Chg | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔴 | AMERICAN TRADE SHOW SERVICES, L.L.C. | USD 4,945 | 123 | 14 | -88.6% | 2,959 | 2,959 | +0.0% | -88.6pp |
| 🔴 | RentalMatics | USD 1,809 | 454 | 157 | -65.4% | 2,183 | 2,187 | +0.2% | -65.6pp |
| 🔴 | Prospera_Valmont_AgSense | USD 57,917 | 10,787 | 10,943 | +1.4% | 42,742 | 69,192 | +61.9% | -60.4pp |
| 🟠 | Tenovi Health | USD 20,821 | 8,218 | 7,315 | -11.0% | 42,425 | 56,189 | +32.4% | -43.4pp |
| 🟠 | Deltatrak, Inc | USD 35,153 | 12,783 | 17,198 | +34.5% | 69,033 | 117,412 | +70.1% | -35.5pp |
| 🟠 | G4S Monitoring technologies Limited | USD 7,952 | 172 | 157 | -8.7% | 796 | 949 | +19.2% | -27.9pp |
| 🟠 | Wattch | USD 6,217 | 70 | 76 | +8.6% | 1,125 | 1,529 | +35.9% | -27.3pp |
| 🟠 | Service Insight LLC | USD 2,899 | 3,276 | 2,401 | -26.7% | 8,125 | 8,144 | +0.2% | -26.9pp |
| 🟠 | Reinke Manufacturing Co., Inc | USD 1,347 | 846 | 651 | -23.0% | 2,006 | 2,048 | +2.1% | -25.1pp |
| 🟠 | Giesecke+Devrient Mobile Security TCD UK Limited (formerly POD Goup) | USD 2,930 | 141 | 118 | -16.3% | 7,513 | 7,824 | +4.1% | -20.5pp |
_*Device count: avg daily devices communicating on the network —
source: daily_account_network_summary._ †Subscriber
count: billed SIMs per month — source: fact_subscriptions.
‘—’ = no subscription record.
Action guide: 🔴 Severe — escalate to account team immediately.
🟠 Notable — account team to investigate root cause (fleet reduction, provisioning delay, or genuine churn).
Methodology Notes
- Network source:
aeriscom-acpcmn-prod-202006.cmp_sec.daily_account_network_summary— avg daily active devices per account - Billing source:
sawg-summit-2019-240716.direct_customers_analytics.fact_subscriptions— monthly billed SIM count per account - Current period: Feb 2026 (2026-02-01 – 2026-02-28)
- Baseline period: Aug 2025–Jan 2026 (2025-08-01 – 2026-01-31, 6 calendar months)
- Scope: 144 accounts qualifying (≥ 50 avg daily devices in 6-month baseline AND ≥ USD 1,000 revenue in Feb 2026)
- Divergence:
device_pct_chg − subs_pct_chg(percentage points). Negative = devices declining faster than billing. - Alert threshold: Divergence ≤ −20pp — configurable
via
DIVERGENCE_THRESHOLDinsignal1.py - Severe threshold: |divergence| ≥ 60pp —
configurable via
SEVERE_THRESHOLDinsignal1.py - Subs missing: Accounts with no
fact_subscriptionsrecord show divergence = device % change (subs assumed 0% change). - Full methodology: See
s1_device_activity/methodology.md
Generated: 2026-03-11 | Signal 1 v2.0